We May Not Be Headed for Collapse After All

I've been posting about the possibility (even likelihood) of societal collapse for some time. (See the We're Toast topic on this blog). Many of the reasons for that originate from the research of Peter Turchin. He's just published a long article in New Scientist (archive.ph link) in which he says that we may not be as badly off as first thought, primarily due to the increasing resilience of modern societies. 

More than two decades ago, I began applying the mathematics of complex systems to history in an attempt to uncover underlying patterns. Using this approach, I discovered that violent political instability follows two cycles, one peaking every 50 years or so, superimposed over another that does so every two or three centuries.

Applying this to the US and western Europe, I was shocked to discover that these societies were well advanced on the road to crisis. In 2010, in Nature, I forecast that crisis would escalate and peak during the 2020s. A decade later, the evidence supported that prediction.

You might have come across some of these ideas recently, following the publication of my book End Times. Perhaps unsurprisingly, reviewers used words like “collapse”, “revolution” or even “doom” to describe my work. So, it may surprise you to learn that I don’t believe collapse is inevitable. In fact, my latest research reveals something fascinating and encouraging: human societies have evolved to become less prone to collapse. Better yet, this insight could help us weather the current crisis.

He goes into much more detail in his article and provides some suggestions about what we can do to avoid collapse. 

Western civilisation is in trouble, but an analysis of history reveals how we can avoid collapse (see main story). The trick is to bolster the right kind of social complexity – in particular, institutions and policies that boost the well-being of the majority of people and reduce conflict between elites:

1. Progressive taxation reduces the creation of too many wealthy elites and the economic impoverishment of the rest

2. A universal right to vote and the election of public officials constrain arbitrary and selfish behaviour by rulers

3. Labour-protecting institutions, such as unions, and a minimum wage decrease economic inequality

4. A welfare state equitably promotes the well-being of all citizens

5. International cooperation through the United Nations and its agencies, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, helps address global challenges.

These are all good and common-sense ideas. I am not convinced that we have the will to implement them. I would also like to know how much has factored disruptions due to climate change into his research. So, for the moment, I remain pessimistic.