Showing posts with label Climate Change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Climate Change. Show all posts

Thursday, July 16, 2026

The Future File 1

I'm starting a new series of posts to feature articles that make verifiable predictions. My intent is to review them at a later date to see how accurate they were. Today, I'm starting with two articles.
  • This could be the strongest El Niño on record. "With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin." Review on November 30.
  • The Forever War Gets Scary. "But we are really now at the point where it’s pretty clear that Trump and the people around him have given up on actually winning the election. They’ve decided instead that somecombination of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and possibly massive illegality is their way forward." Review November 15.

Friday, July 03, 2026

Carney's Capitulation

This article by Charlie Angus eviscerates the oil companies and the Carney government for caving to them. The government's capitulation to big oil is going to hurt us all in the long run and shows a distinct lack of vision.

It seems darkly ironic that, in a summer of heat domes and climate stress, the PM has announced his “win-win” strategy to build another pipeline.

There is zero business case for this pipeline. It is a total subsidy to the industry. Nonetheless, Mr. Carney assures us it will be a “public-private” partnership.

It is the public who will pay.

The private interests of the oil giants will make out like bandits. They win.

Our children and the planet will lose.


Friday, May 08, 2026

We're Toast 66

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

People dog sledding in front of the Arc de Triumph in a snow covered Paris
Springtime in Paris after the AMOC collapses
  • A catastrophic climate event is upon us. Here is why you’ve heard so little about it. "This system – known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) – delivers heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic. Recent research suggests that if it shuts down, it could cause both a massive drop in average winter temperatures in northern Europe and drastic changes in the Amazon’s water cycles. This could help tip the rainforest into cascading collapse and trigger further disaster."
  • Key Atlantic Current System Collapse Could Trigger Huge Carbon Dioxide Release, Increasing Global Warming By 0.2 °C. "he Atlantic Ocean has a complex system of currents and eddies known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and includes the famous Gulf Stream, which helps with milder temperatures in Northern Europe. Over the last century, however, the AMOC has been slowing down, and new research highlights just how bad things might get for the planet’s climate if it collapses completely."
  • Climate change is supercharging hurricane rainfall, contributing to deadly floods. "Freshwater flooding has caused over half of all direct hurricane deaths since 2013. The threat will increase as climate change makes hurricanes wetter and potentially slower-moving."
  • The Clock Is Ticking on a Global Tragedy. "It’s not just oil that travels through the Gulf; the region is home to a massive industry that produces the agricultural fertilizer required to keep food production going. The ongoing disruption of this trade has raised the spectre of global famine."
  • SpaceX wants to launch a million satellites. "Here's how that could impact the atmosphere and the night sky. 'These launches affect everyone,' says one astronomer."
  • Palantir Meets the Anti-Christ. "More and more, the Silicon Valley tech bros are revealing themselves as very dark figures indeed. Gone are cookies and surfing, now they are peddling “AI Kill Chains” for tracking and targeting state enemies. Those being tracked don’t have to have guns. They can be troublesome journalists or civilians hiding from mass deportation."
  • Satellites Could Start Smashing into Each Other in Less Than Three Days, Study Finds. "But new research led by Sarah Thiele at Princeton University has found that one of the biggest threats is a solar storm that could cause a cut in communications between satellites and their operators. If the resulting geomagnetic storm did cut comms, the research shows that it could take just 2.8 days before a collision."
  • How climate change threatens the economic backbone of the Pacific. "Warming water temperatures caused by climate change pose a substantial risk to local tuna populations, threatening Kiribati's economic backbone."
  • The Man Who Made America Safer for Measles. "A brief history of how crackpot ego became public-health policy."
  • Major hurricanes in the Northeast are rare. Could climate change make them common? "A Category 4 hurricane making direct landfall on New York City could cause as much as $500 billion in insured damage."
  • How strong can a hurricane get in a warming world? "In the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean, hurricanes with 224 mph (100 m/s) winds are possible. Warming the oceans will increase this maximum potential intensity, with potentially devastating effects."
  • Panama’s ocean lifeline vanishes for the first time in 40 years. "For decades, the Gulf of Panama has relied on strong seasonal winds to trigger upwelling, bringing cool, nutrient-packed water to the surface. But in 2025, this dependable event didn’t happen. Researchers point to unusually weak winds as the likely culprit, reducing ocean productivity and warming coastal waters. The surprise disruption highlights how vulnerable these critical systems may be to climate change."



Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Featured Links - April 29, 2026

Links to things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about.

A small boat travels across the calm Lake Ontario
A calm day on the lake

Friday, April 17, 2026

We're Toast 65

It's well past time for another one of these posts. 

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

a depiction of Planet Earth being toasted like a marshmelow over a campfire.
Our toasting Earth

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Featured Links - March 25, 2026

Things I was interested in but didn't want to do a full blog post about.

The beach at Bluffer's Park  on a cloudy day with sunlight from a break in the clouds reflecting ont he water
Bluffer's Park on a cloudy day

Friday, March 06, 2026

A Cautiously Optimistic Look at the Future

It's easy to get depressed when looking at the news and thinking that everything is getting worse. But there are some trends that provide some hope, at least in the middle and long-term futures. 

Science fiction author and futurist, Karl Schroeder, has published a blog post in which he highlights some things that might lead to cautious optimism about our future prospects. It's long but worth a read.  

Today I’m going to describe some hard, apocalyptic truths about our short-term future. Basically, using fossil fuels for geopolitical extortion is resulting in catastrophe. But then I’m going to make three unapocalyptic claims: first, that fossil fuel coercion is becoming structurally self-defeating; second, that future material scarcities that can be used to coerce weaker nations are shallower and shorter-lived than their predecessors; and third, that the limiting constraint on industrial civilization is ultimately ecological rather than technological or political. Finally, I’ll show how this is cause for a (cautious) optimism about our mid- to long-term future.

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Featured Links - February 25, 2026

Links to things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about.

  • The Ultra-Rich Are Different from You and Me. "Only the little people pay taxes, redux." We need to get back to the 1950s model of progressive taxation. 
  • 11 steps to smarter Google account security. "Give yourself some added peace of mind by giving your Google account a thorough set of security reinforcements."
  • The state of dark mode. From the AskWoody newsletter, the state of dark mode in Windows 11 and some tips for enabling dark mode on some of the remaining features that don't yet support it. 
  • Some of the cracks had penetrated through': Chinese astronauts reveal new details about spacecraft that 'stranded' them in space last year. "Crew members of China's Shenzhou-20 mission recently detailed their reactions upon finding cracks in their spacecraft's viewport during the nation's first spaceflight emergency." 
  • 'We almost did have a really terrible day.' NASA now says Boeing's 1st Starliner astronaut flight was a 'Type A mishap'. "This was a really challenging event in our recent history."
  • Lake Erie’s Storm Surges Become More Extreme (gift link). "Officials are designing new ways to protect the shorelines from sudden flooding and longer storm seasons."
  • The Perfect Storm. "When warnings are everywhere, and still no one moves."
  • Tuesday, December 30, 2025

    What Climate Change Will Mean for the US

    The United States is already experiencing the effects of climate change and those effects are going to get more extreme. That's the theme of the Atlantic article,  What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century, by Van R. Newkirk II (archive link) It's the best article I've read about climate change in a long time. It grabbed me immediately with it's mention of Octavia Butler and it didn't let go until the end.

    Earlier this year, in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains, a graveyard was spared by the fire that sent thousands of Los Angeles residents fleeing into the coal-black night. Here, in Mountain View Cemetery, lie the bones of Octavia Butler, the famed science-fiction writer who spent her life in Pasadena and Altadena, both of which had burned. Trinkets offered by fans often decorate Butler’s unassuming grave. A footstone is inscribed with a quotation from her Parable of the Sower : ALL THAT YOU TOUCH, YOU CHANGE. ALL THAT YOU CHANGE, CHANGES YOU.

     In that dystopian novel, published in 1993 and set in the mid-2020s, the United States still exists but has been warped by global warming, and its authoritarian government has ceded most of the administration of day-to-day matters to corrupt companies. In Butler’s neo-feudal vision, states and cities erect strict borders to deter migrants, the gap between rich and poor has widened, and massive wildfires in Southern California drive the state’s decline.

    It has become commonplace to label Butler a prophet. She didn’t get everything right about the United States today. But even in the things that haven’t happened, exactly, one can see analogs to real life.

    Butler, however, considered herself merely an analyst—a “histofuturist.” She often said that her primary skill was simply learning from the past. In her research for Parable, she studied times of rising political strife and demagoguery, along with America’s history of class and racial inequality. She studied what was at the time an emerging scientific consensus regarding global warming, a body of research that even then predicted fires and floods, and warned of political instability.

    “I didn’t make up the problems,” Butler wrote in an essay for Essence in 2000. “All I did was look around at the problems we’re neglecting now and give them about 30 years to grow into full-fledged disasters.” That same year, she said in an interview that she dearly hoped she was not prophesying anything at all; that among other social ills, climate change would become a disaster only if it was allowed to fester. “I hope, of course, that we will be smarter than that,” Butler said six years before her death, in 2006.

    What will our “full-fledged disasters” be in three decades, as the planet continues to warm? The year 2024 was the hottest on record. Yet 2025 has been perhaps the single most devastating year in the fight for a livable planet. An authoritarian American president has pressed what can only be described as a policy of climate-change acceleration—destroying commitments to clean energy and pushing for more oil production. It doesn’t require an oracle to see where this trajectory might lead.

    This is a long article and it's not pleasant reading, although it does offer a glimmer of hope at the end. But if you want to understand some of the challenges that face the United States, and by extension the rest of the world, in the next twenty or 30 years, it's essential reading. 



    Tuesday, November 18, 2025

    Featured Links - November 18, 2025

    Things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about.

    The Scarborough Bluffs

    Friday, November 14, 2025

    We're Toast 64

    This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

    Garden plants partly covered in snow
    Winter is coming
  • The planet has entered a ‘new reality’ as it hits its first climate tipping point, landmark report finds. "As humans burn fossil fuels and ratchet up temperatures, it’s already driving more severe heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires."
  • The Caribbean has a super-hurricane problem. "Caribbean nations face an increasing threat from super hurricanes, which can cost a significant fraction of their GDP. Climate change is expected to make the strongest hurricanes stronger."
  • World’s oceans losing their greenness through global heating, study finds. "Researchers say decline in phytoplankton suggests weakened planetary capacity to absorb carbon dioxide."
  • They were drilling off Oregon. What they found could shake all of California. "Scientists have uncovered evidence that megaquakes in the Pacific Northwest might trigger California’s San Andreas Fault. A research ship’s navigational error revealed paired sediment layers showing both fault systems moved together in the past. This finding hints that the next “Big One” could set off a devastating one-two seismic punch along the coast."
  • This Week in Space 185: Gutting Goddard. "Dismantling a NASA Center." The war on science continues. 
  • Vaccine Skepticism Comes for Pet Owners, Too. "Anti-vaccine sentiment is spilling over into veterinary medicine, making some owners hesitant to vaccinate their pets, even for fatal diseases like rabies." Rabies is fatal to humans too. To quote Jerry Pournelle: "Think of it as evolution in action."
  • The pandemic next time. "How President Donald Trump’s administration has undermined efforts to develop vaccines and drugs for the next viral scourge." People, perhaps millions of people, will die because of their stupidty. 
  • Friday, November 07, 2025

    More on Disinformation 8

    It's time for another post about disinformation and misinformation. I could probably do a post a day like this if I had the time and the stomach for it.  

  • Imagery faked with AI’s help only added to the awfulness of Hurricane Melissa. "A Category 5 landfall during Halloween week was scary enough on its own."
  • The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly. "We uncover footprints of activities connected to scientific fraud that extend beyond the production of fake papers to brokerage roles in a widespread network of editors and authors who cooperate to achieve the publication of scientific papers that escape traditional peer-review standards. Our analysis reveals insights into how such organizations are structured and how they operate."
  • Scientists slam Trump administration climate report as a ‘farce’ full of misinformation. "Experts say the report being used to justify the mass rollback of climate regulations has many claims based on long-debunked research."
  • Symbolic Strength More Important Than Facts When It Comes To Misinformation. "Why do some people endorse claims that can easily be disproved? It’s one thing to believe false information, but another to actively stick with something that’s obviously wrong. Our new research, published in the Journal of Social Psychology, suggests that some people consider it a “win” to lean in to known falsehoods."
  • You did no fact checking, and I must scream. "Recently, the beloved actor Patricia Routledge died. Several newspapers reposted a piece of viral slop which I had debunked a month previously. Let's go through the piece and see just how easy it is to prove false."
  • MAID (Medical Assistance in Dying), Freedom, and the Lie That Canada “Kills Its Own”. "When a government program becomes a punching bag for MAGA/MAPLE MAGA Religious Cult led internet outrage, facts go missing. Let’s put them back."
  • Anti-vaccine myths surged on social media ahead of the CDC shooting. Before the shooting, social media companies relaxed their protocols around misinformation.
  • The Autism Epidemic That Never Was. "RFK Jr.'s scientific illiteracy has led the ignorant down a dangerous path."
  • How the Rapid Spread of Misinformation Pushed Oregon Lawmakers to Kill the State’s Wildfire Risk Map. "This is how misinformation gets accepted as fact."
  • A Sodom and Gomorrah Story Shows Scientific Facts Aren’t Settled by Public Opinion. "Claims that an asteroid or comet airburst destroyed the biblical Sodom captured the public’s imagination. Its retraction shows that scientific conclusions aren’t decided by majority rule in the public square."
  • Delusion by Design: How Conspiracy Groups And Bad Actors Are Engineering AI Platforms And Chatbots to Confirm Their Beliefs and Lies. "Chatbots and AI Models Trained on Junk Science are now Being Used to Radicalize, Recruit, and Mislead the Masses - and It's working."
  • Three quarters of Canadians say misinformation affected the federal election: poll. "The Leger poll, which sampled more than 1,500 Canadian adults from April 29 to May 1, suggests that 19 per cent of people think false information or misinformation had a major impact on the election."
  • Hot Air: the danger of climate misinformation. "Tortoise has identified more than 300 influencers who are spreading content about climate change that ranges from scepticism to misinformation. Claims made over the past three years on X, YouTube, TikTok and media sites have been compiled in a searchable database that shows how online untruths about climate are growing, changing shape and spreading."
  • Friday, October 10, 2025

    We're Toast 63

    This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

    A small, old graveyard
    Our future





    Monday, October 06, 2025

    Featured Links - October 6, 2025

    Links to things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about. I didn't post last week, so here's a baker's dozen for you. 

    GO Train tracks looking east from the Pickering GO Station
    GO Train tracks out of Pickering

    Tuesday, August 19, 2025

    Featured Links - August 19, 2025

    Things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about.

    Seven swans at the far side of Frenchman's Bay
    Seven swans on the bay


    Thursday, August 14, 2025

    We're Toast 62

    This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

    A golfer on a hilltop swings his club while a city burns in the backghround
    Golfing while the world burns

    Note: I created the image above Microsoft's Copilot AI tool. I wanted an image of Trump golfing on the White House lawn while Washington burned. It refused to do that but offered sevral alternative suggestions of which this was one. 

  • He Asked a Chatbot How to Start a Pandemic. It Answered. "A former UN weapons inspector brought the results to the White House. The message: anyone can do this now."
  • Phoenix Is Facing A Heat Crisis. Here's A Glimpse of Our Climate Future. "Phoenix is experiencing record-breaking, prolonged extreme heat driven by climate change, pushing the city into uncharted territory with growing risks to health, infrastructure, and daily life."
  • Trump Administration Moves to Destroy Satellite That Monitors Greenhouse Gases. "The Orbiting Carbon Observatories have been a game-changer for agriculture and climate science. Now, NASA is under pressure to terminate them." Farmers use the information from these satellites to check on how well their crops are going. 
  • The Republican campaign to stop the U.S. EPA from protecting the climate. "An audacious effort to destroy climate regulations is likely headed for a showdown at the Supreme Court."
  • The Drying Planet. 'Now, a new study that examines the world’s total supply of fresh water — accounting for its rivers and rain, ice and aquifers together — warns that Earth’s most essential resource is quickly disappearing, signaling what the paper’s authors describe as “a critical, emerging threat to humanity.” The landmasses of the planet are drying.'
  • Scientists raise red flags after observing concerning new whale behavior: 'We're seeing conditions that suggest a continuation'. "So far this year, 47 gray whales have been stranded across California, Washington, and Oregon — already well above last year's total of 31, with peak migration not expected until the end of June. Cascadia Research reports that most of the stranded whales showed signs of malnutrition, including depleted blubber oil, missing fat reserves, and empty digestive tracts."
  • Rising Seas Could Displace Millions, Triggering Global Migration Crisis, Study Warns. "Scientists issue a dire warning that even the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target is too high and will have catastrophic consequences for coastal populations."
  • Nuclear Winter Would Be Even Worse Than We Thought. "The consequences of nuclear catastrophe extend far beyond the initial explosion—it could dismantle global food security for decades to come, a new study suggests."
  • Friday, July 18, 2025

    We're Toast 61

    This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

    An AI created image of an ostrich with a head in the shape of the continental US burying its head in the sand.
    US climate change policy 

    Note: I created the image above Microsoft's Copilot AI tool. It took about three minutes and three prompts to get something close to what I wanted.

    Tuesday, July 15, 2025

    Featured Links - July 15, 2025

    Links to things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about.

    A large patch of daisies
    Summer daisies

    Monday, July 07, 2025

    Featured Links - July 7, 2025

    Links to things I found interesting but didn't want to do a full blog post about. 

    A white hydrangea
    A hydrangea in our backyard

    Wednesday, June 25, 2025

    The USA versus Canada 8

    The relationship between Canada and the US is and contin
    uing to change. It's clear that Prime Minister Mark Carney is determined to reduce Canadian dependence on the US and he seems to have the support of most Canadians and Parliament. Here are some articles covering what's happened over the last month. 

    Request: I am curious to know how much of this is being reported in US media. I'd appreciate comments with links if you can provide them. 

    The Gordie Howe International Bridge between Detroit and Windsor
    Gordie Howe International Bridge between Detroit and Windsor

  • Nation-Building in the North from science fiction author and futurist, Karl Schroeder. "Canada is reconfiguring itself as a strategic global power. How does that work?" I hope that people in Carney's administration are reading Schroeder. (As an aside, the leader of the Bloc Quebecois reads Robert J. Sawyer.)
  • Republicans say tax retaliation proposal could be cut from Trump bill if international deal can be reached. "The provision would impose a progressive tax burden of up to 20 per cent on foreign investors’ U.S. income, raising concerns on Wall Street about the attractiveness of U.S. investments." If dividend income from US stocks held by Canadian investors starts getting taxed, there is going to be a big sell-off here. 
  • Trump's 'revenge tax' on other countries could hit U.S. "Tax that could hit Canadians comes with risk to U.S. revenue, investments."
  • American Climate Scientists Have a New Canadian Hero. "How McGill professor Juan Serpa created SUSAN, the online forum helping U.S. researchers protect their data from Trump."
  • Last Year's Move to Toronto And This Year's Politics (video and commentary) from historian and author, Timothy Snyder, one of the many academics who have moved from the US to Canada. 
  • The US Badly Needs Rare Minerals and Fresh Water. Guess Who Has Them? "As China tightens its grip on critical resources, Trump eyes Canada’s riches."
  • Canada Torches the Trump Umbilical Cord: Bill C-5 Passed, EU Trade/Security Partnership Signed, and Our Democratic Break From America Begins. "A Historic Pact with the EU Signals Canada’s Rise as a Sovereign Power—and a Sharp Rejection of Trump’s Tariff Bullying and War-First Chaos." Blundell can be a bit hyperbolic (a friend described him as 'shouty') but if you are interested in this subject, he's worth following. 
  • Fact Checking "Cosplay Kristi" Noem's Latest Canada Smear. "No, Governor Noem—Canada Isn't a Narco-State, Trudeau Never Worked With You, and Fentanyl Isn’t Flowing North."