The Future File 1

I'm starting a new series of posts to feature articles that make verifiable predictions. My intent is to review them at a later date to see how accurate they were. Today, I'm starting with two articles.

• This could be the strongest El Niño on record. "With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin." Review on November 30.
• The Forever War Gets Scary. "But we are really now at the point where it’s pretty clear that Trump and the people around him have given up on actually winning the election. They’ve decided instead that somecombination of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and possibly massive illegality is their way forward." Review November 15.

Photo of the Week - July 12, 2026

This week's photo is of a sail boat in Frenchman's Bay. Despite there being a couple of marinas on the bay, we don't see a lot of boats on the bay, probably because it's shallow and gets choked with vegetation by the end of the summer. Taken with my Pixel 8 Pro using the full 50 MP sensor setting.

Sail boat on the bay

Saturday Sounds - Don Was and the Pan-Detroit Ensemble

Today's musical treat is from Don Was, a Detroit-based musician and producer who, over the last few years, has been playing bass with Bob Weir and Wolf Brothers. He's currently touring with a new group, Don Was and the Pan-Detroit Ensemble. It's a large group, playing jazz, funk, and R&B; as he says in a "mission to chronicle the native sounds of our home city, Detroit". It reminds me a bit of Kamasi Washington's band. To sweeten the mix, he's been throwing in some Grateful Dead covers into his sets. 

They'll be playing in Toronto at Koerner Hall on January 30, 2027. I might go. 

Here are three recent sets that have shown up on YouTube. 

Don Was and the Pan-Detroit Ensemble: Tiny Desk Concert

WNRN In-Studio Session: Don Was and the Pan-Detroit Ensemble

Don Was and the Pan-Detroit Ensemble - 15 January 2026 - The Atlantis, Washington, D.C. (full show)

The US Versus Canada 15

Canada and the US celebrated their respective national anniversaries this week, so it seems like a good time to post another set of articles about the relationship between our two countries. Let's start with Bryan Adams and his new song, "51st State".

  

• Trump Regime Lists "Nine Canadian Grievances" Of Unfair Canadian Trade Practices Ahead Of Free Trade Negotiation Deadline That MIGHT Have Been Written By A Three-Year-Old. "The Trump regime’s “key complaints” against Canada are, honestly, REALLY f***** funny."
• Canada and America Are Drifting Apart. The Pentagon Just Made It Official. "A surprise defence decision reveals the depth of the political rupture."
• Canada won’t drop fees on big American streaming services (gift link). "The Trump administration has explicitly opposed any such charges levied against the big streaming firms, most of which are U.S.-based giants."
• Stop Panicking about CUSMA. Canada’s Trade Future Isn’t as Dire as It Looks. "Trump can talk tough, but supply chains still bind North America together."
• Sorry, Mark Carney, ‘Shakedown in Windsor’ is a true crime drama where Donald Trump holds a bridge, and a nation, hostage (gift link). "Prime Minister Mark Carney said it was “no drama” that the Gordie Howe International Bridge opening ceremony had to be cancelled. He is wrong about that, writes Andrew Phillips. It’s actually a true crime story being played out for all to see."
• Trump Says He Won't Renew Free Trade Agreement (CUSMA) With Canada/Mexico. "A ruthless, fully-sourced fact-check of the dumbest eight words Trump has said this week — delivered the same day US inflation hit 4.2%."
• The Threat to Canada Is Coming From the White House. "This past week, the ambassador of a foreign country, Pete Hoekstra, publicly stated that Canada’s sovereignty would be a “great discussion” in the upcoming trade negotiations with the Trump administration."
• Why this Toronto man is being flooded with requests from Americans about their Canadian ancestors (gift link). "The Canadian Citizenship Act has opened doors to foreign nationals who want to reclaim citizenship by descent. Archivists are suddenly in demand."
  

Photo of the Week - July 5, 2026

Today's photo is of a yucca growing in our front yard. We had a brief thunderstorm yesterday afternoon and after the sun had come out, the rain drops were glowing like diamonds on the top of the yucca. Taken with my Pixel 8 Pro. 

Raindrops on the yucca

 

Saturday Sounds - Garnet Rogers - Burnham 2026/03/07

This week's musical treat is a live performance by Garnet Rogers, who Nancy and I have seen more times than I can remember. We haven't seen him perform in a couple of years, so finding this recent performance is a treat. I don't know anything about the venue, but it's a professional recording with good sound. Enjoy.

Carney's Capitulation

This article by Charlie Angus eviscerates the oil companies and the Carney government for caving to them. The government's capitulation to big oil is going to hurt us all in the long run and shows a distinct lack of vision.

It seems darkly ironic that, in a summer of heat domes and climate stress, the PM has announced his “win-win” strategy to build another pipeline.

There is zero business case for this pipeline. It is a total subsidy to the industry. Nonetheless, Mr. Carney assures us it will be a “public-private” partnership.

It is the public who will pay.

The private interests of the oil giants will make out like bandits. They win.

Our children and the planet will lose.

What Marcus Aurelius Can Tell Us Today

I found this article by historian Timothy Snyder particularly insightful. Coincidentally, I've been reading a series of novels by S. M. Stirling, (TO TURN THE TIDE and THE WINDS OF FATE). They postulate time travellers trying to avoid a nuclear war by returning to the Roman Empire of Marcus Aurelius and changing history. Marcus Aurelius, the subject of Snyder's article, is an important character in the novels. . 

In the late second century AD, the Roman Empire confronted armies that had crossed the border at the Danube River and even broached the Alps in northern Italy. Among them were the Iazyges, speakers of an Iranian language, who hailed from the Ukrainian steppe.

In Ukraine this February, I was learning about an archaeological find which reveals the interactions of the Romans and the Iazyges, which included alliance as well as enmity. The Roman war against the Iazyges allies was commanded personally by Emperor Marcus Aurelius, who spent the years between 171 and 180 AD at the front. During that time he kept a philosophical diary, probably written at night in his tent. Discovered after his death, that text, known as the Meditations, is a great work of Stoic philosophy.

I turned to the Meditations to see if I could learn anything that would help me to understand the work of Ukrainian archaeologists about the interactions between Romans and Iazyges. I found something else: perspective on the wars of today, and a sense of why, beyond his obvious incompetence in military matters, Trump had to lose his.