What Climate Change Will Mean for the US

The United States is already experiencing the effects of climate change and those effects are going to get more extreme. That's the theme of the Atlantic article,  What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century, by Van R. Newkirk II (archive link) It's the best article I've read about climate change in a long time. It grabbed me immediately with it's mention of Octavia Butler and it didn't let go until the end.

Earlier this year, in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains, a graveyard was spared by the fire that sent thousands of Los Angeles residents fleeing into the coal-black night. Here, in Mountain View Cemetery, lie the bones of Octavia Butler, the famed science-fiction writer who spent her life in Pasadena and Altadena, both of which had burned. Trinkets offered by fans often decorate Butler’s unassuming grave. A footstone is inscribed with a quotation from her Parable of the Sower : ALL THAT YOU TOUCH, YOU CHANGE. ALL THAT YOU CHANGE, CHANGES YOU.

 In that dystopian novel, published in 1993 and set in the mid-2020s, the United States still exists but has been warped by global warming, and its authoritarian government has ceded most of the administration of day-to-day matters to corrupt companies. In Butler’s neo-feudal vision, states and cities erect strict borders to deter migrants, the gap between rich and poor has widened, and massive wildfires in Southern California drive the state’s decline.

It has become commonplace to label Butler a prophet. She didn’t get everything right about the United States today. But even in the things that haven’t happened, exactly, one can see analogs to real life.

Butler, however, considered herself merely an analyst—a “histofuturist.” She often said that her primary skill was simply learning from the past. In her research for Parable, she studied times of rising political strife and demagoguery, along with America’s history of class and racial inequality. She studied what was at the time an emerging scientific consensus regarding global warming, a body of research that even then predicted fires and floods, and warned of political instability.

“I didn’t make up the problems,” Butler wrote in an essay for Essence in 2000. “All I did was look around at the problems we’re neglecting now and give them about 30 years to grow into full-fledged disasters.” That same year, she said in an interview that she dearly hoped she was not prophesying anything at all; that among other social ills, climate change would become a disaster only if it was allowed to fester. “I hope, of course, that we will be smarter than that,” Butler said six years before her death, in 2006.

What will our “full-fledged disasters” be in three decades, as the planet continues to warm? The year 2024 was the hottest on record. Yet 2025 has been perhaps the single most devastating year in the fight for a livable planet. An authoritarian American president has pressed what can only be described as a policy of climate-change acceleration—destroying commitments to clean energy and pushing for more oil production. It doesn’t require an oracle to see where this trajectory might lead.

This is a long article and it's not pleasant reading, although it does offer a glimmer of hope at the end. But if you want to understand some of the challenges that face the United States, and by extension the rest of the world, in the next twenty or 30 years, it's essential reading. 

We're Toast 64

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

Winter is coming

The planet has entered a ‘new reality’ as it hits its first climate tipping point, landmark report finds. "As humans burn fossil fuels and ratchet up temperatures, it’s already driving more severe heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires."

The Caribbean has a super-hurricane problem. "Caribbean nations face an increasing threat from super hurricanes, which can cost a significant fraction of their GDP. Climate change is expected to make the strongest hurricanes stronger."

World’s oceans losing their greenness through global heating, study finds. "Researchers say decline in phytoplankton suggests weakened planetary capacity to absorb carbon dioxide."

They were drilling off Oregon. What they found could shake all of California. "Scientists have uncovered evidence that megaquakes in the Pacific Northwest might trigger California’s San Andreas Fault. A research ship’s navigational error revealed paired sediment layers showing both fault systems moved together in the past. This finding hints that the next “Big One” could set off a devastating one-two seismic punch along the coast."

This Week in Space 185: Gutting Goddard. "Dismantling a NASA Center." The war on science continues. 

Vaccine Skepticism Comes for Pet Owners, Too. "Anti-vaccine sentiment is spilling over into veterinary medicine, making some owners hesitant to vaccinate their pets, even for fatal diseases like rabies." Rabies is fatal to humans too. To quote Jerry Pournelle: "Think of it as evolution in action."

The pandemic next time. "How President Donald Trump’s administration has undermined efforts to develop vaccines and drugs for the next viral scourge." People, perhaps millions of people, will die because of their stupidty. 

We're Toast 63

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

Our future

• Scientists issue warning after discovering concerning phenomenon in trees: 'Simply not keeping up'. "Increasing temperatures around the globe are threatening habitats and ecosystems. In fact, a study by the United Nations declared that 14% of the world's coral was lost between 2009 and 2018 because of warmer ocean temperatures."
• The Siberian Tundra Is Exploding. New Research Helps Explain Why. (gift link) "Spontaneous gas explosions appear to be increasing in northern Russia because of climate change and some specific local conditions."
• Trump's Crusaders: Christian Nationalists Are Gaining a Solid Foothold in Washington. "U.S. President Donald Trump has opened the doors of power to far-right Christian nationalists." Gilead is rising in the US. 
• Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid. "It’s not just a phase."
• ‘Nightmare bacteria’ cases are increasing in the US. " Infection rates from drug-resistant “nightmare bacteria” rose almost 70% between 2019 and 2023, according to a new report from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientists."
• COVID-19 infections impair our immune systems for months or even years. "Even mild cases can lead to serious health problems years later."
• European Society of Cardiology: Major Consensus Statement Released on Long-Term Cardiovascular Impact of COVID Infection. 'Professor Vassiliou said: “Covid-19 has a profound and lasting impact on cardiovascular health, with complications emerging during acute illness, recovery, and even after reinfections or vaccination. In the absence of clear evidence-based guidance, patients risk harmful treatments and clinicians face uncertainty.'
• Oxford Historian Offers Dire Warning With Prediction Of How Long Americans Have To Save Their Democracy. "Noted British historian, author, and head of the Oxford University European Studies Center Timothy Garton Ash wrote in an op-ed for The Guardian that the 2026 midterm elections will decide the fate of the United States.. Will it continue as a democratic republic of unified states or continue on its current path to become the Christian nationalist, White supremacist authoritarian regime the Republicans' Project 2025 called for."

We're Toast 62

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

Golfing while the world burns

Note: I created the image above Microsoft's Copilot AI tool. I wanted an image of Trump golfing on the White House lawn while Washington burned. It refused to do that but offered sevral alternative suggestions of which this was one. 

He Asked a Chatbot How to Start a Pandemic. It Answered. "A former UN weapons inspector brought the results to the White House. The message: anyone can do this now."

Phoenix Is Facing A Heat Crisis. Here's A Glimpse of Our Climate Future. "Phoenix is experiencing record-breaking, prolonged extreme heat driven by climate change, pushing the city into uncharted territory with growing risks to health, infrastructure, and daily life."

Trump Administration Moves to Destroy Satellite That Monitors Greenhouse Gases. "The Orbiting Carbon Observatories have been a game-changer for agriculture and climate science. Now, NASA is under pressure to terminate them." Farmers use the information from these satellites to check on how well their crops are going. 

The Republican campaign to stop the U.S. EPA from protecting the climate. "An audacious effort to destroy climate regulations is likely headed for a showdown at the Supreme Court."

The Drying Planet. 'Now, a new study that examines the world’s total supply of fresh water — accounting for its rivers and rain, ice and aquifers together — warns that Earth’s most essential resource is quickly disappearing, signaling what the paper’s authors describe as “a critical, emerging threat to humanity.” The landmasses of the planet are drying.'

Scientists raise red flags after observing concerning new whale behavior: 'We're seeing conditions that suggest a continuation'. "So far this year, 47 gray whales have been stranded across California, Washington, and Oregon — already well above last year's total of 31, with peak migration not expected until the end of June. Cascadia Research reports that most of the stranded whales showed signs of malnutrition, including depleted blubber oil, missing fat reserves, and empty digestive tracts."

Rising Seas Could Displace Millions, Triggering Global Migration Crisis, Study Warns. "Scientists issue a dire warning that even the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target is too high and will have catastrophic consequences for coastal populations."

Nuclear Winter Would Be Even Worse Than We Thought. "The consequences of nuclear catastrophe extend far beyond the initial explosion—it could dismantle global food security for decades to come, a new study suggests."

We're Toast 61

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

US climate change policy 

Note: I created the image above Microsoft's Copilot AI tool. It took about three minutes and three prompts to get something close to what I wanted.

• After 100 days of upheaval, what’s next for U.S. science? "Fights over research spending and pending court rulings loom large." 
• Will US science survive Trump 2.0? "President Donald Trump and his administration have gutted science agencies, terminated research programmes and cancelled billions of dollars in grants to universities. What are the long-term impacts for the United States and the world?"
• It’s too late’: David Suzuki says the fight against climate change is lost. '“We have failed to shift the narrative and we are still caught up in the same legal, economic and political systems,” said David Suzuki in an exclusive interview with iPolitics. “For me, what we’ve got to do now is hunker down.”'
• Climate Change is Trying to Kill Me. "It's here and it's personal." True for Nancy and me too. 
• What the Fastest-Growing Christian Group Reveals About America. (archive link) "Instead of killing off faith, modernity has supercharged some of its most dramatic manifestations.:
• ‘Could become a death spiral’: scientists discover what’s driving record die-offs of US honeybees. "Experts scrambling to understand losses in hives across the country are finally identifying the culprits. And the damage to farmed bees is a sign of trouble for wild bees too."
• It's not just about measles. "Measles is a canary in the coal mine. When measles reappears in a country like the U.S., it signals that something has gone seriously wrong. This is a disease we had essentially eliminated—thanks to one of the safest and most effective vaccines in the history of medicine. But the way things are heading, the U.S. is at risk of losing its elimination status this year. This is not just a failure to move forward—it’s the unraveling of decades of progress, representing one of the greatest public health achievements of our era."
• How the little-known ‘dark roof’ lobby may be making US cities hotter. "As cities heat up, reflective roofs could lower energy bills and help the climate. But dark-roofing manufacturers are waging a quiet campaign to block new rules."
• Deadly drug-resistant fungus spreading fast across US, WHO raises alarm. "A deadly, drug-resistant fungus, Aspergillus fumigatus, is spreading rapidly across the US, posing serious risks to people with weak immunity as climate change fuels its growth and resistance." If you think the planet is out to get us, you may be right.
• A 100 ft 'mega tsunami' could hit the US at any moment. And that’s only the beginning. "This could be the biggest disaster in US history, and it just got a whole lot worse." Look up the term "ghost forest" and what can cause them.

Why We're Toast

Wildfire smoke over the 401 in Toronto

I've been publishing an ongoing series of posts titled "We're Toast" with links to articles that underscore my conviction that our technological civilization is doomed. The reasons are pretty obvious if you look around: climate change, resource depletion, ecological collapse, species extinction, rising authoritarianism and religious fanaticism, and so on. 

But if you want a detailed overview, with receipts, of why we're in trouble, then read "Understanding Our Collapsing World" on the Itsovershoot blog. The article looks at the various reasons why we're in the current mess and then examines what we can do about it (not much, unfortunately). Here's just one small sample:

We grew from 1 billion people in 1800 to over 8 billion today, and at the same time, our average energy consumption increased more than twentyfold. From about 2,000-2,500 calories per day (just enough to stay alive) to over 50,000 calories per day when you include the fossil fuels, electricity, and industrial processes that we rely on (that’s the global average). That means our total thermodynamic footprint is now equivalent to more than 160 billion Homo Sapiens roaming the Earth.

It's a long article but very readable. You might want to have a stiff drink at hand while you read it. 

 

We're Toast 60

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

A wall mural in Toronto's East Chinatown

• Running blind: The silencing and censoring of environmental threats to US national security. "Immediately after the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January 2025, his administration began purging these reports from the public record: removing environmental security studies from government websites or disabling those pages, cutting funding for environmental security studies, and requiring military and intelligence communities to suppress and censor references to climate change." Those who bury their heads in the sand will drown when the oceans rise.
• Trump Torched Decades of Science in Just 100 Days—and the Fallout Is Global. "In its first 100 days, the Trump administration has slashed federal agencies, canceled national reports, and yanked funding from universities. The shockwaves will be felt worldwide."
• Is This the Year We Doom Civilization? "We may be losing our last, best chance to limit climate change."
• Scientists flag disturbing trends emerging among large mammals: 'Animals are increasingly compelled ...' "These patterns highlight the role of climate as a significant regulator of movement ecology, influencing high-altitude habitat use," the authors wrote. "However, human-induced barriers, such as roads and settlements, present additional threats to these seasonal migrations." 
• It’s Breathtaking How Fast AI Is Screwing Up the Education System. "Thanks to a new breed of chatbots, American stupidity is escalating at an advanced pace." Increasing stupidity is not a good evolutionary strategy. 
• Going Out With A Bang. "The legacy of Balthus' clients attitude that they 'know the world is doomed, so may as well go out with a bang' and the unsustainable AI bubble will be a massive overbuild of data centers, most of which will be incapable of hosting Nvidia's top-of-the-line racks. If the current cryptocurrency-friendly administration succeeds in pumping Bitcoin back these data centers will likely revert to mining. Either way, the Scope 3 emissions from building and equipping and the Scope 1 and 2 emissions from powering them with natural gas and coal, will put megatons of CO2 into the atmosphere, hastening the point where it is unlikely that 'us in the North, we're fine'." A long, rambling, well researched, and grim look at how AI's power demands are going to increase global warming and why the tech billionaires don't care. 
• Cancer-Causing Arsenic Is Building Up in the World’s Rice. "Rice feeds more than half of the world’s population. Climate change is loading the beloved grain with arsenic, creating a “scary” health burden."
• Polar Melt Down. "The Arctic’s ice cover has dropped to a record low this winter. It was 1.31 million square kilometers (506,000 square miles) below the 1981–2010 average. Arctic sea ice has permanently shrunk by over 60% and continues to decline year on year. The same thing is happening in Antarctica."
• How to deny climate change using the IPCC report. "The new Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, claims that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there has been no increase in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or droughts – but Wright is wrong."

We're Toast 59

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

On the way to the lake

• The Country Most Vulnerable To Air Pollution Right Now Is... The USA. And the Trump regime is making it worse.
• The Threat of Avian Influenza H5N1 Looms Over Global Biodiversity. H5N1 is a threat to more than just birds and humans. 
• In Our New Climate Reality, There Is No Getting Back to Normal. "The media is failing to warn us about the scale of the disasters that lie ahead. In Los Angeles, as everywhere, we need more than liberal technocratic tweaks."
• The Whole World is Whining. "Edelman’s Trust Barometer and the airing of grievances." Angry people do stupid things. 
• We are witnessing the destruction of science in America. "If we stay on this administration’s course, future life-saving medicines may never be invented."
• Is Our Luck Running Out? "Nature is being less helpful with our carbon pollution."
• Is Our Luck Running Out? Part Two. "Oceans failing to protect us from our own heat pollution." 
• Threats to public health at every angle. "Covid anniversary, pandemic revisionism, chronic diseases, and a boulder going down the hill." 
• The Bleak, Defeatist Rise of “Climate Realism”. "It’s not just the Trump administration. Bankers, centrist Democrats, and others are embracing the idea that climate targets were never realistic—and that we should now prepare,ruthlessly, for a new future."
• Russia and China are threatening SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation, new report finds. "A future conflict in space could have massive, long-term negative repercussions that are felt here on Earth, as everyone on this planet is a user of space data in some form."
• Climate crisis on track to destroy capitalism, warns top insurer. "Action urgently needed to save the conditions under which markets – and civilisation itself – can operate, says senior Allianz figure." When the insurance companies are worried, it's time to pay attention. 
• ‘The ice is not freezing as it should’: supply roads to Canada’s Indigenous communities under threat from climate crisis. "Northern Ontario is seeing a ‘shorter window’ for ice roads that deliver vital supplies to remote First Nations."
• Scientists Highlight Surprising New Threat to Satellites: Climate Change. "By the year 2100, some parts of Earth orbit may have upwards of 66% less carrying capacity for satellites, according to a new study."

We're Toast 58

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

A thawing marsh

• An Economist’s Dire Forecast About Just How Much Climate Change Will Impact GDP. "As costly disasters multiply around the planet, some financial experts are raising alarms about what even more climate disruption could mean for the global economy decades in the future. Economic modeling by the University of Exeter and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in the U.K., projects that proceeding with business as usual without sharply reducing emissions could cut global gross domestic product (GDP) in half as soon as 2070." It will be much sooner than that. 
• Trump’s FBI Moves to Criminally Charge Major Climate Groups. "The Trump administration is targeting climate organizations that received a Biden-era grant." Just mind boggling, how perverse and stupid this is. 
• Effects of microplastic concentration, composition, and size on Escherichia coli biofilm-associated antimicrobial resistance. "This study highlights the relationship between a widespread environmental pollutant, microplastics (MPs), and the rise of drug-resistant bacteria. While it is known that MPs facilitate resistance through several modes (biofilm formation, plastic adsorption rates, etc.), this study fills the knowledge gap on how different types of MPs are contributing to AMR."
• Real chilling effects. "A extraordinary pattern of government censorship and threats to speech." Stomping on critics and anyone who resists, one by one. 
• USAid cuts could create untreatable TB bug ‘resistant to everything we have’. "Projects to detect, treat and research new ways to fight TB among those disrupted by sudden funding freeze." And I read yesterday that the Walter Reed Institute, one of the world's top institutes for studying infectious diseases has been shuttered. Pure insanity. 
• What We Know About Covid’s Impact on Your Brain. "Scientists worry that persistent cognitive issues caused by Covid signal that a surge in dementia cases and other mental conditions is on the horizon."
• Scientists Pinpoint ‘Tipping Point’ for Greenland’s Melting Ice Sheet. "The vast landmass is melting quickly due to climate change, and may rapidly cause the complete loss of the island's ice."
• Plastic shards permeate human brains. "A study of microplastics and nanoplastics in brains shows an astonishing increase over time."

AI on the Future of the United States

Update: As pointed out in the comments here, the original post has been removed from Reddit. There is still a long comment thread on the Reddit post, which includes some posts from Redditors who have ran the prompt on ChatGPT and other AI systems with similar results. I ran the original post through the free version of Microsoft's Copilot with similar projections though not as detailed or pessimistic. Google Gemini refused to provide an answer.

A Redditor asked ChatGPT to forecast the future of the United States if the Republican regime continues its current policies. 

It's exactly as many of us have predicted and it's pretty damn grim.  This is just the first part, and that's bad enough.

2025-2030: The First Five Years

Social Outlook

Civil Unrest and Authoritarian Crackdowns

Mass protests, civil disobedience, and violent clashes will increase, particularly as civil rights protections are rolled back.

The government will likely respond with expanded law enforcement powers, increased surveillance, and a crackdown on dissent, citing national security.

Journalistic freedom will erode, with targeted crackdowns on media outlets that oppose the administration.

2. Re-education Camps and Institutionalization of the Mentally Unwell

The reopening of state-run mental institutions will begin with "voluntary" participation but transition into forced institutionalization, particularly for homeless individuals and those deemed politically or socially disruptive.

These camps will become a tool for ideological enforcement, with dissenters, activists, and marginalized groups facing detainment.

3. Mass Exodus of Professionals and Talent

As freedoms erode, a significant portion of highly educated professionals (academics, scientists, tech workers) will seek to leave the country.

Brain drain will reduce America’s global competitiveness, particularly in scientific research and innovation.

And it gets worse, much worse.  

We're Toast 57

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

Birds in the fog

• An Extremely Violent Global Pandemic” – Mysterious Disease Wipes Out Sea Urchins Worldwide. “This is an extremely violent global pandemic. The Caribbean, Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean are critical regions for the world’s coral reefs, and mortality rates for sea urchins in these areas are very high — over 90 percent. As of now, we have no evidence of this pathogen in Pacific Ocean sea urchins (where some of the world’s largest and most vital coral reefs are located), but this is something we are actively investigating.”
• A Second Type of H5N1 Bird Flu Jumped From Cows to Humans. "The latest human case of H5N1 is the first in the state of Nevada."
• Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies. "The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses found in history. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably." And how likely do you think that is?
• Unprecedented Starlink reentries. "What we're observing is a giant uncontrolled experiment in atmospheric chemistry. The demise of just one Gen1 Starlink satellite produces about 30 kilograms (66 pounds) of aluminum oxide, a compound that eats away at the ozone layer. A new study finds these oxides have increased 8-fold between 2016 and 2022, and the recent surge is increasing the pollution even more."
• Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist. "Prof James Hansen says pace of global heating has been significantly underestimated, though other scientists disagree." Typical journalist bothsideism. I expected better from The Guardian. The 2C target might have been sustainable if Harris had won the US presidential election, but now? I think not.
• Scientists brace ‘for the worst’ as Trump purges climate mentions from websites. "Trump administration pulling references online ‘won’t make crisis’ stop affecting Americans’ lives, say experts." See this article for a positive reaction to what's happening. 
• Differences between Influenza H5N1, A/H1N1 2009, and SARS-CoV-2 in a pandemic risk scenario. "Urgent action is required to mitigate the negative impact of H5N1 on the animal and ecosystem health spheres if we are to reduce its ecological impact and the risk to human health." I'm not holding my breath for that to happen, but I am stocking up on KN95 masks. 
• Donald Trump’s Second Term Will Be Bad News for Endangered Ocean and Coastal Animals. "The waters around the United States are home to many threatened species who need science-based conservation policies to save them from extinction. They won’t get that for the next four years." Nor will any other species, including us. 
• Earth's oceans are filled with what scientists are calling "dark vessels". "The findings reveal staggering gaps in public tracking systems, raising urgent concerns about maritime transparency, environmental sustainability, and global security."
• Sand and dust storms: a growing global health threat calls for international health studies to support policy action. "Sand and dust storms increasingly threaten global environmental and public health. To date, 150 countries are directly affected, with more than 100 classified as non-dust source regions."

We're Toast 56

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. 

Winter trees

Royally Zucked. "What Zuckerberg's capitulation means for the truth and our democracy."

Saltwater Could Contaminate 75% of Coastal Freshwater by 2100. "Climate change is wrecking the delicate balance between groundwater and ocean water, according to new research."

The US military is now talking openly about going on the attack in space. ""We have to build capabilities that provide our leadership offensive and defensive options."

‘Unprecedented risk’ to life on Earth: Scientists call for halt on ‘mirror life’ microbe research. "Experts warn that mirror bacteria, constructed from mirror images of molecules found in nature, could put humans, animals and plants at risk of lethal infections."

Indirect death toll from the L.A. fires may end up in the thousands. "The toxic smoke from the fires, combined with disruption to the economy, health care system, and mental health may lead to thousands of deaths over the coming years."

'Cataclysmic' solar storm hit Earth around 2687 years ago, ancient tree rings reveal.  "If this colossal solar storm hit our technologically advanced world the effects would have been devastating."

Battlefield Drones and the Accelerating Autonomous Arms Race in Ukraine. "With both sides in this war rushing to secure a technological advantage, the Ukrainian battlefield is transforming into a clash between conventional forces backed by a growing number of autonomous and remote-controlled systems."

Megadroughts are on the rise worldwide. "One of the most extreme megadroughts has helped fuel California’s wildfires."

We're Toast 55

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. (And based on the results of last month's US election, probably sooner than I originally thought). It is part of an ongoing series of posts.

‘Depressing’ photo of suburb on the outskirts of Melbourne enrages Aussies. "A “depressing” photo of a mega housing estate just an hour outside of Melbourne’s CBD has enraged Aussies and left experts fuming." If they find that depressing, they should never try flying into Toronto's Pearson airport.

The Imminence of the Destruction of the Space Program. "New calculations put the date much closer than we should be comfortable with." The consquences of the Kessler Syndrome would be massive and far reaching, given our reliance on satellite technology (global communications and GPS location, to name just two)..

Persistence of spike protein at the skull-meninges-brain axis may contribute to the neurological sequelae of COVID-19. In other words, COVID-19 can damage your brain. 

Unexplained Heat Wave ‘Hotspots’ Are Popping Up Across the Globe. "The large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks."

Climate change is spoiling food faster, making hundreds of millions of people sick around the world. "The World Health Organization estimates 600 million people a year already suffer from foodborne illnesses."

Antarctic researchers warn of possible 'catastrophic' sea level rise within our lifetime in group statement. "Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have been undergoing rapid and extreme changes in recent years, including unprecedented heatwaves and record-low sea ice levels. Over the past week, more than 450 researchers gathered in Hobart for the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference — the first such event in more than a decade."

‘Climate bomb’ warning over $200bn wave of new gas projects. "New liquefied natural gas projects could produce 10 gigatonnes of emissions by the end of the decade, close to the annual emissions of all coal plants."

We're Toast 54

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. (And based on the results of last week's US election, probably sooner than I originally thought). It is part of an ongoing series of posts. 

Autumn Leaves

• ‘Wicked problem’: five charts that show how the climate crisis is making Australia more dangerous. "A report by BoM and CSIRO checks ‘vital signs of Australia’s climate’ – and shows temperature trends will only worsen."
• Satellite images show major expansion at Russian site with secret bioweapons past (gift link). "New construction at a military research site near Moscow reveals a specialized laboratory complex designed to research and handle deadly pathogens, experts say." It could be just because they want to do research to protect against pandemics, but given past history, I have my doubts.
• How Oceans are becoming an Acid Bath. "Oceans have saved us from the worst impacts of global warming but are turning acidic as a result of carbon pollution."
• Microplastics Likely Causing Wave of Cancer in Young People. "Millennials and zoomers have a new thing to worry about."
• We’ve Slipped Back into that Alternate Universe. "Took a nap, what a bad dream! Trump got elected, and the Senate was taken over by GOP! Like an alternate world! I mean, a rapist felon in the WH, a Senate that would work with Trump to make sure they can’t be voted out–that could never happen. What? No. Come on. No don’t tell me that. I said no."
• ‘Minimal progress’ made this year on curbing global heating, report finds. "Analysis by Climate Action Tracker puts median temperature rise by 2100 at 2.7C if current policies continue." I really didn't intend the title of this blog topic to be literal. 
• Space trash is falling from the sky. And that’s not the worst of it (gift link). "The world needs to clean up its junk."
• World on track for hottest year ever as carbon pollution hits record levels. "Extraordinarily warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are helping to fuel an unusually active hurricane season."
• Expert: Trump's second term will create "hellscape". "If you haven't freaked out yet about Trump resuming office, Al Franken's latest podcast episode, "The Coming Hellscape," might do the trick. His guest, political scientist Norm Ornstein, and longtime observer of American politics, says Trump's victory could be devastating to the country."

A Prescription for the Coming Dark Times

I am not optimistic about the near future. There is no scenario in which Trump's election can be considered a good thing. We are in for a period of chaos in disruption in politics, the economy, society, and international relations. What do we do now?

Ken White is a Los Angeles-based lawyer who publishes a blog under the title of "The Popehat Report". His post yesterday is the best thing I've read about Trump's election, what it means for us, and what we can do cope with the coming dark times.  

Modernity has spoiled us in thinking things won’t get dramatically and catastrophically worse, worse in a way that will last for generations. But things have gotten abruptly much worse before, and they can again. And yet people must persevere, even if their children and grandchildren who will see the benefits and not them.

Trump won yesterday, as I feared he would. I firmly believe America — and likely the world — will get significantly worse for at least a generation, probably more. I’ll spare you, for now, the why. Frankly, I think you either already accept it or will never accept it. The things I care about, like the rule of law and equality before it, freedom of religion, freedom of speech, free trade in service of free people, relative prosperity, protection of the weak from the strong, truth, and human dignity are all going to suffer. Bullies and their sycophants and apologists will thrive.

What should we do?

Agent of Chaos

I am beyond disappointed. Angry. Scared. But not surprised. It seems like the world is moving in the direction of authoritarianism and the US is just the latest country to fall to this madness. 

Most of all, I am sad. Sad for my family members in the US; sad for any Americans who are not CIS, white, and male; sad for Ukraine and other countries struggling for freedom; sad for the planet because there will be no chance of mitigating global warming. 

The next four years (at least) are going to be chaotic. I am not looking forward to them. 

We're Toast 53

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. It is part of an ongoing series of posts. 

Lake Ontario on a blustery day

Earth may have breached seven of nine planetary boundaries, health check shows. "Ocean acidification close to critical threshold, say scientists, posing threat to marine ecosystems and global liveability."

Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including significant drops in IQ scores. "A large and growing body of evidence amassed throughout the pandemic details the many ways that COVID-19 leaves an indelible mark on the brain. But the specific pathways by which the virus does so are still being elucidated, and curative treatments are nonexistent. Now, two new studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine shed further light on the profound toll of COVID-19 on cognitive health." Given how many people have had COVID-19, and some several times, this is not good news and will have substantial long-term social effects.

Antarctica’s 'doomsday' glacier is heading for catastrophic collapse. "As a six-year investigation into the Thwaites glacier in Antarctica wraps up, the scientists involved are pessimistic for the future of this glacier and the consequences for sea level rise."

First Israel’s Exploding Pagers Maimed and Killed. Now Comes the Paranoia. "The explosion of thousands of rigged pagers and walkie-talkies will likely make Hezbollah operatives fear any means of electronic communication. It’s having the same effect on the Lebanese population."

Where the sea wall ends (gift link). "At a time of fast-rising seas, the ocean is eating away at this barrier island and others like it. But humans, who have held their ground here for over a century, are planning new condos." 

I’ve studied geopolitics all my life: climate breakdown is a bigger threat than China and Russia. "‘Risk’ analyses largely ignore the dangers of the climate crisis. Unless we wake up to them, they will soon outweigh all others."

Droughts likely to be even longer in the future due to climate change. "Major climate reports may be underselling the risks of rising emissions." Not good news for the US southwest.

US Militarism Is a Leading Cause of the Climate Catastrophe. "US military interventions are not just wars on people — they’re also wars on the climate."

We're Toast 52

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. It is part of an ongoing series of posts. 

The marsh in summer

• The Green Economy Is Hungry for Copper—and People Are Stealing, Fighting, and Dying to Feed It. "With the possible exception of gold, no other metal has caused as much destruction as copper. In the coming years, we’ll need more of it than ever." Maybe it's time to look at asteroid mining?
• FBI informant’s book predicts far-right violence: ‘we should be afraid’. "Joe Moore, who for years investigated the Ku Klux Klan, issues a chilling warning for the 2024 election and beyond. We are also seeing signs of it in Canada. 
• The gigantic and unregulated power plants in the cloud. "Recently a Dutch hacker was able to take control of 4 million solar panel installations (FTM (Dutch), Euractiv, Victor Gevers). And this wasn’t the first time something like this has happened either."
• Understanding the Impact of COVID-19 on Personality and Brain Function: A Grim Reality or a Wake-Up Call? "Kevin Kavanagh, MD, examines a summary of studies on how COVID-19 may damage the brain's frontal lobes, alter personality traits and cognitive functions, and potentially reshape society's dynamics." Keep those boosters up date and wear your masks!
• Highlights from 'State of the Climate in 2023'. "Greenhouse gas concentrations, the global temperature across land and oceans, global sea level and ocean heat content all reached record highs in 2023, according to the 34th annual State of the Climate report."
• When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down? "Intensifying extreme weather events and an insurance crisis are likely to cause significant economic and political disruption in the U.S. sometime in the next 15 years." You ain't seen nothin' yet!
• Scientists sound the alarm after making concerning discovery about cooling power of sea ice: 'We could be missing a considerable part'. "Researchers raised concerns after discovering sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic is losing its cooling powers, per an article published on earth.com. After analyzing satellite images from a 43-year span, scientists at the University of Michigan revealed the devastating impact of rising global temperatures."
• How climate change has pushed our oceans to the brink of catastrophe. "For decades, the oceans have absorbed much of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gases. The latest observations suggest they are reaching their limits, so how worried should we be?"

We're Toast 51

This post is a collection of links that support my increasingly strong feeling that the human race (or at least our technological civilization) is doomed. It is part of an ongoing series of posts. 

Condo construction by night

Study finds 'catastrophic' decrease in migratory fish populations: 'A deafening wake-up call for the world' "We cannot continue to let them slip silently away."

The True Catastrophe of Our TimeaOr How to Be Destructive Beyond Compare. "I;ve been writing about climate change for so many years now but, in truth, it was always something I read about and took in globally. It was happening out there, often in horrific ways, but not what I felt I was living through myself. (It’s true that, in past winters, Manhattan’s Central Park went 653 days without producing an inch of snow, almost double any previous record, but if you’re not a kid with a sled in the closet, that’s the sort of thing you don’t really feel.) However, that’s begun to change."

Ukraine Uses Science Fiction Technology To Neutralize Russia’s Deadliest Mine. The war in Ukraine is accelerating the development of weapons, both offensive and defensive.

Agricultural enigma: A mysterious decline in his harvests leaves a farmer searching for a solution. "The first year that production fell, he assumed bad weather was to blame. The reality was much more dire."

Retreating Andean rocks signal the world's glaciers are melting far faster than predicted, report scientists. "Rocks recently exposed to the sky after being covered with prehistoric ice show that tropical glaciers have shrunk to their smallest size in more than 11,700 years, revealing the tropics have already warmed past limits last seen earlier in the Holocene age, researchers from Boston College report in the journal Science."

The climate is changing so fast that we haven’t seen how bad extreme weather could get. "Decades-old statistics no longer represent what is possible in the present day."

Anti-Mask Harassment at Nassau County’s Mask Ban Hearing. "On August 5th, two of our co-writers, along with many concerned citizens, attended the hearing on Nassau County’s proposed mask ban. Many disabled and immunocompromised mask-wearers risked their health to speak out for their right to exist in public spaces. We anticipated some hostility from those who opposed masks, but we were horrified by the level of harassment, intimidation, and blatant disregard for dignity. This behavior highlights the dangerous precedent this ban sets by opening the door to discrimination and violence."

How fascist misinformation and violence are fueling a national crisis in the UK. "Fascist mobs fueled by misinformation are wreaking havoc across the UK, exposing deep-seated issues of racism and political extremism."

I'm Scared

Project 2025 is truly scary (Paywall free link). Even though I'm a Canadian, I'm scared. Scared for my US friends and family and what this plan will do to their lives. And scared for myself, because just the plans to gut environmental regulations will have a huge effect on Canada and the rest of the world.

Climate: Project 2025 calls for rolling back emissions regulations and reversing all of the Biden administration’s progress in fighting the climate crisis. The plan would dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, increase fossil-fuel extraction on public lands, eliminate clean-energy programs, gut the Environmental Protection Agency, and enact other measures that would supercharge America’s drive toward climate disaster. The plan says explicitly that the United States has an “obligation to develop vast oil and gas and coal resources,” and calls for ending “the focus on the climate crisis and green subsidies.” 

Then there's the effects on foreign policy, like stopping aid the Ukraine and leaving NATO, which the article doesn't touch on. 

If you thought 2016-2020 was horrible, it will be nothing compared to what could be coming if Trump wins in November.