Imagining China in 2069

If the United States continues on its current course, the 21st century will be China's century. I don't think there's much doubt about that. What would a world dominated by a Chinese superpower be like? The article China 2069: Triumph or Travesty attempts to find out. 

One of the more remarkable things about China in the current moment is that a country with so much past is now the crucible of the future. But it shouldn’t really be a surprise. For most of the past 2,000 years, China has been on the cutting edge of both cultural and technological progress and for long stretches boasted the most prosperous pace-setting economy on the planet. In the long run, the so-called century of humiliation, dating from the Opium Wars to the triumph of the Chinese Communist revolution, may turn out to be nothing more than a speed bump, an interregnum between soaring dynasties. After 40 years of phenomenally fast economic growth, China already boasts the second-largest economy in the world; in 2069, another 50 years from now, it could well reign supreme again.

 But what exactly would it mean for China to once again set the world’s agenda? Is China 2069 a future in which technology works for or against humanity? China already is giving the world an avalanche of mixed signals. For every high-speed bullet train and spacecraft landing on the moon, there’s a facial recognition surveillance system backing up concentration camps in Xinjiang and a censored internet site. Chinese industry is simultaneously pushing renewable energy forward while generating astounding amounts of pollution. Are we headed for the engineered social stratification of “Folding Beijing,” or could we hope instead for a society where robots do all the work while humans amuse themselves composing poetry and practicing calligraphy?

The author examines six different topics: the environment, AI, space, war, the economy, and culture. All could have important and widely varying impacts on the next 50 years. 

I found it especially interesting that the author also looks at the future through the lens of Chinese science ficiton.

China watchers looking in from the outside have been waiting a long time for a new generation to loosen the reins of cultural control. They have been consistently disappointed. But as I corresponded with writers like Chen and Baoshu and Xia Jia, all of whom are living and writing in China today, it started to seem feasible that their own work was a demonstration of Chen’s argument. In other words, the best place to seek a potent source of Chinese cultural influence on the world is in the science fiction that is being concocted by a new generation forged in the crucible of the future.\

It's a fascinating and important article.