Are We On the Road to Civilization Collapse?

For some time, I've thought that our current civilization is in deep trouble. (See the We're Toast category on this blog for links supporting this idea).

But why? The BBC has a long article in their Futures series that details the reasons why modern civilization may be on the brink of collapse – a collapse that seems to have factors in common with all historical civilizations.

If the fate of previous civilisations can be a roadmap to our future, what does it say? One method is to examine the trends that preceded historic collapses and see how they are unfolding today.

While there is no single accepted theory for why collapses happen, historians, anthropologists and others have proposed various explanations, including:

• Climactic change
• Environmental degradation
• Inequality and oligarchy 
• Complexity
• External shocks
• Randomness/bad luck 

Each factor is explained in some detail.

It's not all bad news. Factors like social resilience and innovation can mitigate the driving forces of collapse.

The author concludes:

The collapse of our civilisation is not inevitable. History suggests it is likely, but we have the unique advantage of being able to learn from the wreckages of societies past.

We know what needs to be done: emissions can be reduced, inequalities levelled, environmental degradation reversed, innovation unleashed and economies diversified. The policy proposals are there. Only the political will is lacking. We can also invest in recovery. There are already well-developed ideas for improving the ability of food and knowledge systems to be recuperated after catastrophe. Avoiding the creation of dangerous and widely-accessible technologies is also critical. Such steps will lessen the chance of a future collapse becoming irreversible.

We will only march into collapse if we advance blindly. We are only doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past.

I think the next couple of years will be key. We've seen the rise of right-wing, anti-environmentalist, and autocratic regimes in several countries, including the United States. If the Republican party (with or without Trump) wins the 2020 election, if the United Kingdom leaves the EU, and right-wing ideologues win power in nations like Canada, we will be on the road to darkness.