The Future File 3 - Will Putin's Russia Collapse?

Here's another predictive post from Dean Blundell, who does like predictions. This is from Russia Is Out Of Gas. Literally. And Trump Just Switched Teams Mid-Russian Collapse As Ukraine Overwhelms Russia EVERYWHERE posted on July 24. 

Why This Might Actually Be The Beginning Of The End In Moscow

Here’s the historical part, and I want to be careful: nobody can predict the end of a regime, and Putin has survived plenty. But Russian regimes don’t fall to elections. They fall to lost wars. The Russo-Japanese War gave you the 1905 revolution. World War I ended the Romanovs. Afghanistan helped bury the Soviet Union. The pattern is losing a war while the economy collapses and the elites lose faith — and check the scoreboard: growth stagnant at 1 percent, the deficit doubled, Putin reportedly passing the hat to oligarchs for “donations,” fuel rationing for 50 million people, an army losing more men than it can recruit, and Sberbank’s own CEO, German Gref, telling shareholders in June that nobody in Russia cares about anything except ending the war as fast as possible.

That’s the head of Russia’s biggest bank saying the quiet part into a microphone. When the money men start talking like that in public, it’s because they’ve already said worse in private.

It's a bit loose as a prediction, but I think the intent is clear. Let's check on this one on October 31. 

 

The Future File 2

This is part of a series of posts to feature articles that make verifiable predictions. My intent is to review them at a later date to see how accurate they were. 

Today's post references an article by Dean Blundell published on July 21: Trump Just Declared Economic War on Canada. Again, and Mark Carney Just Eviscerated Him For It. "He did it on a Monday. Of course he did it on a Monday. Set your TACO timer for 30 days."

At the end of the article, he says:

Here’s the punchline, and you already know it: these tariffs don’t take effect for 30 days.

Thirty days. The standard Trump escalation window. The exact runway he always builds himself so he can strut, threaten, watch the markets gag, watch American consumers scream about prices, watch the lawsuits pile up — Section 338 is going to get shredded in court, just like the Supreme Court already shredded his emergency tariffs in February — and then “graciously” announce a pause, a deal, a framework, a beautiful letter from Mark. Trump Always Chickens Out. He did it after “Liberation Day” cratered the markets. He does it every single time the bill comes due.

Review on August 21.  

The Future File 1

I'm starting a new series of posts to feature articles that make verifiable predictions. My intent is to review them at a later date to see how accurate they were. Today, I'm starting with two articles.

• This could be the strongest El Niño on record. "With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin." Review on November 30.
• The Forever War Gets Scary. "But we are really now at the point where it’s pretty clear that Trump and the people around him have given up on actually winning the election. They’ve decided instead that somecombination of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and possibly massive illegality is their way forward." Review November 15.