Wednesday, November 13, 2024

A Bit of Silver Lining in Dark Clouds

The political news coming out of the United States has been pretty grim in the last week, but there are some silver linings in the dark clouds. In his Tuesday newsletter, Jay Kuo points out that Trump's penchant for appointing sycophants may be threatening a presumable Republican House majority.

If the House race watchers are correct, the GOP may have 220 or 221 House seats in the next session, compared to the Democrats at 215 to 214. That’s already a fairly slim majority, and a defection of three or four members could sink any piece of legislation. We saw that dynamic play out repeatedly over the past two years, resulting in the least productive Congress in recent history.

That’s why analysts like Adam Carlson (and myself) are rather shocked at how many of Trump’s picks for key cabinet or operational positions are being drawn from the ranks of the House Republican Conference. By today’s count, as many as five GOP members could give up their seats if they are nominated and get confirmed by the Senate.

On top of Reps. Waltz and Stefanik, Trump reportedly may tap Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) for Secretary of Defense, Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) for Secretary of Transportation, and Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA) for Secretary of Agriculture.

There is even a world in which a 220-215 GOP majority moves this spring to a 215-215 tie.

If all this happens, and while we await special elections, Speaker Johnson might struggle mightily to push any legislation through, assuming he can even re-win the Speakership. Any delay in moving bills along will give Democrats that much more time to rally and lobby against them, particularly if they would strip away healthcare or raise costs on working families or the elderly, and peel off a few GOP swing district members.

We can only hope. 

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