Will This Year's Hurricane Season Be Bad?

As if we didn't have enough things to worry about, we're coming up on another hurricane seaon, and according to some researchers, it could be a bad one.

From Penn State's Earth System Science Center:

Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.

The prediction is for 19.8 +/- 4.4 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 15 and 24 storms, with a best estimate of 20 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).

This forecast is similar (if worse) than one issued earlier by Colorado State University researchers.

The upcoming hurricane season is likely to be more active than usual, according to the April outlook from a team at Colorado State University that has been issuing seasonal hurricane predictions for decades. In its outlook issued Thursday, the CSU group is calling for a total of 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, compared to the long-term average (1981-2010) of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The group is also projecting an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 150, compared to the long-term average of 106.

It could be a very bad year for the US and Caribbean countries if these forecasts turn out to be accurate. Given how warm it has been in Florida this year, I suspect they will be.